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Climate change
The Stern Review
Background
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, was published in October 2006. The author, Lord Stern, was the then Head of the Government Economic Service and a former World Bank Chief Economist. It is the most comprehensive review ever carried out on the economics of climate change.
Main points
Long lead times - The effects of our actions now on future changes in the climate have long lead times. What we do now can have only a limited effect on the climate over the next 40 or 50 years. On the other hand what we do in the next 10 or 20 years can have a profound effect on the climate in the second half of this century and in the next.
Mitigation - Taking strong action to reduce emissions must be viewed as an investment, a cost incurred now and over the next few decades to avoid the risks of very severe consequences in the future. If these investments are made wisely, the costs will be manageable, and there will be a wide range of opportunities for growth and development along the way.
Current GHG levels - The current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is equivalent to around 430 parts per million (ppm), compared with only 280ppm before the Industrial Revolution. These concentrations have already caused the world to warm by more than half a degree Celsius and will lead to at least a further half degree warming over the next few decades.
Future GHG levels - Even if the annual flow of emissions did not increase beyond today's rate, the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would reach double pre-industrial levels by 2050 - that is 550ppm CO2e - and would continue growing thereafter. But the annual flow of emissions is accelerating, as fast-growing economies invest in high carbon infrastructure and as global demand for energy and transport increases. The level of 550ppm CO2e could be reached as early as 2035. At this level there is at least a 77% chance - even a 99% chance, depending on the climate model used - of a global average temperature rise exceeding 2°C.
Cost of extreme weather grows - The increased cost of damage from extreme weather (storms, hurricanes, typhoons, floods, droughts, and heat waves) will counteract some early benefits of climate change and will increase rapidly at higher temperatures. The cost of extreme weather alone could reach 0.5 - 1% of world GDP per annum by the middle of the century, and will keep rising if the world continues to warm up.
• A 5 or 10% increase in hurricane wind speed, linked to rising sea temperatures, is predicted to double annual damage costs in the USA.
• In the UK, annual flood losses alone could increase from 0.1% of GDP today to 0.2 - 0.4% of GDP once the increase in global average temperatures reaches 3 or 4°C.
• Heat waves like that experienced in 2003 in Europe, when 35,000 people died and agricultural losses reached $15 billion, will be commonplace by the middle of the century.
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